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NEWS STORY
OFFICIAL RETAIL FIGURES AT ODDS WITH BRC EVIDENCE
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| September 18, 2008 |
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Unexpectedly resilient official retail sales figures fail to convey how tough conditions are for customers and retailers, said the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
Today's (Thursday) Office for National Statistics figures suggest August's total sales values were up 3.9 per cent on a year ago, well above the weak 1.4 per cent shown by the BRC's figures. ONS year-on-year growth was higher in August than July (they also reported an increase in year-on-year sales growth between June and July). The BRC's Retail Sales Monitor shows it has been falling.
ONS don't measure like-for-like sales but BRC figures show sales down year-on-year for five of the last six months.
Stephen Robertson, Director General of the British Retail Consortium, said: "These unexpectedly resilient figures fail to convey how tough conditions are for customers and retailers. Plenty of retailers would be delighted if their sales values were up nearly four per cent on a year ago.
"Fundamental conditions are weakening, not improving, and recent banking industry uncertainty can only make customers more nervous about spending.
"Yes, clothing and footwear sales growth has risen but that growth is modest and driven by discounts. It cannot be called strong and cannot explain ONS' high overall figures.
"We respect the ONS's process but the Bank of England is right to treat these figures as only one measure of retail performance."
Notes to Editors
The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor (RSM) is produced from around 70 participants from across the UK retail industry who are members of the BRC. Sales values across a range of 12 product categories are provided weekly to KPMG who then aggregate them into annual growth rates for each month on a total and like-for-like basis. These growth rates are then weighted according to ONS Family Spending data to produce the headline growth rates. These headline growth rates are published in the second week after the month reported on. In addition, all participants, in the survey receive weekly analysis of sales split into the product categories as a tool for gauging their own performance in relation to their sector, and the industry as a whole.
The like-for-like measure is often used by retailers, the city and analysts to assess the performance of individual companies, retail sectors and the industry overall, without the distorting effect of changes in floorspace.
The total sales measure is used to assess market level trends in retail sales. It is a guide to the growth of the whole retail industry, or how much consumers in total are spending in retail ? retail spending represents approximately one-third of consumer spending. It is this measure that is often used by economists.
The ONS Retail Sales Index (RSI) measures monthly movements in the average weekly sales of British retailers. The monthly survey of 5,000 collects the total retail turnover from each business selected. Responses are mandatory in accordance with Government legislation. Retail turnover is the total value of sales of goods to the general public for personal or household use. It includes sales via the internet and other forms of mail order.
The ONS' monthly Retail Sales First Release concentrates on seasonally adjusted volumes of retail sales, i.e. after the effects of price changes and regular seasonal factors have been removed. An unadjusted RSI for the value of sales is also included in the First Release. In addition, a monthly compendium is published which contains detailed series by type and size of retailer.
The latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor is available to journalists from the BRC Press Office
Media Contacts
BRC Press Office 020 7854 8924/8920
Out of hours 07921 605544 / 07793 874511
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